Notes
Preparing for the Twenty-First Century is a wide-ranging and intelligent survey of global trends — from population growth and global warming to the revolutions in biotechnology and robotics — and how they are likely to influence, if not dictate, the shape of society in coming years.
The book is divided into three parts. The first is largely descriptive and examines general world trends. A chapter each is devoted to the population explosion and shifting demographic patterns; the communications revolution and the rise of the multinational corporation; world agriculture and the burgeoning field of biotechnology; robotics, automation and the changing face of industry; the growing threats to the natural world and the danger posed by global warming; and the decline of the nation-state.
Part Two takes a more analytical turn, assessing the regional impacts of these global changes on the developing world, Japan, India, China, the former Soviet world, Europe, and the United States.
Part Three consists of a single chapter summarizing Kennedy's conclusions about how societies can best "prepare" themselves for the twenty-first century.
According to Kennedy, population growth represents the world's single greatest challenge today. He points out that when Thomas Malthus made his famous prediction in 1798 that the British population would outgrow the country's resources in short order, three unforseen developments allowed Britain to escape the disaster: migration, increased agricultural productivity, and industrialization.
Today the world is facing a dilemma similar the one Malthus described, only on a much vaster scale. The question is whether development can outpace population growth again, as it did in the nineteenth century. Kennedy is doubtful. Almost everyone now agrees, he says, that with our current patterns and levels of consumption, the projected growth in the world's population cannot be sustained.
"Unlike animals and birds, human beings destroy forests, burn fossil fuels, drain wetlands, pollute rivers and oceans, and ransack the earth for ores, oil, and other raw materials."
